October 12, 2026 - Gold Slips 0.14% to $4,188.57, Silver Edges Up 0.25% to $60.97 and Brent Falls 0.72% to $103.97

Global Markets

(A) Precious Metals

Gold: $4,188.57/oz (-0.14%)

Gold edged down 0.14%, pressured by elevated Treasury yields and Fed tightening expectations. A 17% October hike probability and 86% by December kept investors cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data.

Silver: $60.97/oz (+0.25%)

Silver edged up 0.25%, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and easing inflation concerns following lower oil prices. However, elevated Treasury yields and Fed tightening expectations limited gains.

(B) Energy

Brent Crude: $103.97/bbl (-0.72%)

Brent fell 0.72%, pressured by President Trump's proposed Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire and prospects of improved fuel supplies. However, Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions limited losses.

(C) FX

DXY: 102.16

The dollar eased to 102.16, pressured by lower oil prices and cautious positioning ahead of U.S. CPI data. However, Fed tightening expectations and Middle East tensions limited losses.

USD/JPY: 158.16

USD/JPY fell 0.14% to 158.16, driven by modest dollar weakness, while elevated U.S. yields and Japan's market holiday limited movement.

EUR/USD: 1.1210

EUR/USD gained 0.10% to 1.1210, supported by dollar weakness and easing energy prices. However, French fiscal uncertainty capped gains.

GBP/USD: 1.3245

GBP/USD remained little changed at 1.3245, supported by a softer dollar, while elevated bond yields and Fed–BOE policy uncertainty limited gains.

Volatility

The VIX closed at 14.84, indicating subdued market volatility, while Fed policy uncertainty, elevated Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions kept investors cautious.

What Markets Are Watching

1. U.S. Inflation Data & Fed Rate Expectations

Markets priced a 17% probability of an October Fed rate hike and an 86% probability of an increase by December, with Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI reports expected to influence policy expectations. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near 5.24% kept borrowing-cost concerns elevated, while easing oil prices provided temporary relief to precious metals.

2. Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire & Middle East Supply Risks

Brent declined toward $103/bbl following President Trump's proposed Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire and plans to increase Russian diesel supplies. However, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, tanker disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty surrounding the proposed agreement continued to threaten energy supply stability.

3. Corporate Earnings, Global Bond Yields & Currency Pressure

Investors awaited major U.S. bank earnings, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, alongside closely watched technology-sector results. Meanwhile, French–German bond yield spreads near 137 basis points, USD/JPY above 158 and elevated global borrowing costs kept pressure on financial markets.